New publication by Dr. Denise Degen in Geosci. Model Dev.

29.11.2021
Representation of the hierarchical process-focused sensitivity analysis of the General-Focus Alps model.

How biased are our models? – a case study of the alpine region

  figure from paper Top-level sensitivity analysis (focusing on the entire Alps model) with different quantities of interest of the hierarchical global sensitivity analysis for the General-Focus Alps model. (taken from the paper))

Abstract:


Geophysical process simulations play a crucial role in the understanding of the subsurface. This understanding is required to provide, for instance, clean energy sources such as geothermal energy. However, the calibration and validation of the physical models heavily rely on state measurements such as temperature. In this work, we demonstrate that focusing analyses purely on measurements introduces a high bias. This is illustrated through global sensitivity studies. The extensive exploration of the parameter space becomes feasible through the construction of suitable surrogate models via the reduced basis method, where the bias is found to result from very unequal data distribution. We propose schemes to compensate for parts of this bias. However, the bias cannot be entirely compensated. Therefore, we demonstrate the consequences of this bias with the example of a model calibration.